[mythtv-users] Comcast to drop analog cable
markknecht at gmail.com
Mon Jun 16 17:10:08 UTC 2008
On Sun, Jun 15, 2008 at 9:42 PM, Michael T. Dean
<mtdean at thirdcontact.com> wrote:
> On 06/15/2008 10:57 PM, David Brieck Jr. wrote:
>> On Sun, Jun 15, 2008 at 9:19 PM, Mark Knecht wrote:
>>> My general thoughts are that by 2010 I'll get most of my media over
>>> some sort of tcpip connection and not really care about this. With
>>> NetFlix providing more than enough media to keep me busy via their
>>> Watch Instantly service they're just the first example of how I expect
>>> to see most everything. There's already media being done for the web.
>>> The networks will figure out how to deliver info directly or other
>>> news organizations will appear at net broadcasters. I'm not going to
>>> pay Comcast for all the media I'd like to watch - the networks, HBO,
>>> Showtime, etc., so I'm already watching the bulk of it time shifted
>>> anyway. As net broadcasting becomes more prevelent it will only become
>>> easier, not harder, I think, to get what I want when I want it. Think
>>> youTube in real time.
>>> Just my general thoughts about why I don't really care 2-3 years from
>>> now, but only time will tell.
>> I have to agree with you here as well. Just like the days of the
>> laminated plastic disc are numbered, so is content coming down a coax
>> cable or via satellite. It probably won't be as soon as 2010, but I
>> would venture to guess it won't be that much longer until one could
>> get by with a fast internet connection and have more than enough
>> content to watch.
> Of course, that assumes the ISP's (i.e. cable co's, telco's, etc.)
> actually do the infrastructure upgrades that would be required to allow
> the Internet to handle that much bandwidth. Based on the estimate of
> NetFlix shipping 1.6M DVD's per day--see
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netflix --and assuming 4.7GB DVD's (though
> today, most are probably 8.54GB DVD's) we're talking about 6840TiB/day
> (6.68PiB/day) to their 6.7M subscribers. Now scale that up to the
> number of people who want TV and... Sure, perhaps with MPEG-4 AVC
> (H.264), the required bitrate could be halved, but then again, I've
> already assumed the half-sized disks. And, really, when you think about
> the fact that most of those NetFlix users also have (and watch) TV from
> OTA/cable/satellite. I think this is exactly why the cable co's are
> looking to implement a switched video infrastructure.
> Not to mention the assumption that today's common (in the US, at least)
> flat-rate unlimited Internet usage model won't be replaced with a
> consumption-based model.
> But, I agree, it's too early to worry (as things could change for the
> better or worse many times before 2010).
I agree with the math, assuming the calculations were done
correctly. (I have no reason to suspect they weren't!) The idea that
everyone watches at the same time is a bit tough on the math, but I
understand your point.
I think the alternative view is that my next NetFlix Watch
Instantly device will contain a hard drive. The movies will be
downloaded continuously, no 'On Demand' and become available to watch
when they are completely here. (Or a large enough percentage of the
movie is here so as to not need to worry too much about Internet
bandwidth.) I'll stick 20 movies in my Watch Instantly queue. At 4GB
it's 100 GB for DVD quality. No big deal. So what if I cannot really
'Watch Instantly'. It probably beats waiting for a DVD in the mail and
not really knowing what they are going to send me since they don't
always send me what's at the top of my queue. With this technology
they can deliver 'Be Kind Rewind' (releasing tonight, 6/16/08) to
1,000,000 homes without needing to own the DVDs, the machinery to put
then in envelopes, the people to run the machines, the Post Office,
Hey, a positive environmental impact! ;
Granted, it is 4*10^9 bytes * 1*10^6 homes or 4*10^15
bytes/movie/day, but that's their business. They also receive
$15M/month from us subscribers to pay for it, right? They'll spread
that out nationally in 20 server centers and it won't be such a big
deal in the end. Comcast is apparently dropping fiber into my
neighborhood so bandwidth seems like it will be here pretty soon.
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