[mythtv-users] Comcast to drop analog cable

[Michael T. Dean]

On 06/15/2008 10:57 PM, David Brieck Jr. wrote:
> On Sun, Jun 15, 2008 at 9:19 PM, Mark Knecht wrote:
>   
>> My general thoughts are that by 2010 I'll get most of my media over
>> some sort of tcpip connection and not really care about this. With
>> NetFlix providing more than enough media to keep me busy via their
>> Watch Instantly service they're just the first example of how I expect
>> to see most everything. There's already media being done for the web.
>> The networks will figure out how to deliver info directly or other
>> news organizations will appear at net broadcasters. I'm not going to
>> pay Comcast for all the media I'd like to watch - the networks, HBO,
>> Showtime, etc., so I'm already watching the bulk of it time shifted
>> anyway. As net broadcasting becomes more prevelent it will only become
>> easier, not harder, I think, to get what I want when I want it. Think
>> youTube in real time.
>>
>> Just my general thoughts about why I don't really care 2-3 years from
>> now, but only time will tell.
> I have to agree with you here as well. Just like the days of the
> laminated plastic disc  are numbered, so is content coming down a coax
> cable or via satellite. It probably won't be as soon as 2010, but I
> would venture to guess it won't be that much longer until one could
> get by with a fast internet connection and have more than enough
> content to watch.

Of course, that assumes the ISP's (i.e. cable co's, telco's, etc.) 
actually do the infrastructure upgrades that would be required to allow 
the Internet to handle that much bandwidth.  Based on the estimate of 
NetFlix shipping 1.6M DVD's per day--see 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netflix --and assuming 4.7GB DVD's (though 
today, most are probably 8.54GB DVD's) we're talking about 6840TiB/day 
(6.68PiB/day) to their 6.7M subscribers.  Now scale that up to the 
number of people who want TV and...  Sure, perhaps with MPEG-4 AVC 
(H.264), the required bitrate could be halved, but then again, I've 
already assumed the half-sized disks.  And, really, when you think about 
the fact that most of those NetFlix users also have (and watch) TV from 
OTA/cable/satellite.  I think this is exactly why the cable co's are 
looking to implement a switched video infrastructure.

Not to mention the assumption that today's common (in the US, at least) 
flat-rate unlimited Internet usage model won't be replaced with a 
consumption-based model.

But, I agree, it's too early to worry (as things could change for the 
better or worse many times before 2010).

Mike