[mythtv-users] mythtv-users Digest, Vol 58, Issue 50

Joe Borne joe.borne at gmail.com
Fri Jan 11 19:39:13 UTC 2008

I said:

> > My predictions for 2008 are:
> >
> > 1.That by July ALL media companies will have abandoned DRM on music CD's
> and
> > files. One or two may hold out. Their artists will leave them in favor
> of
> > direct digital sales. P2P downloads of their materials will continue to
> > erode their market presence until they collapse. The end of `08 will see
> a
> > completely DRM free internet marketplace for music. Multiple sites will
> have
> > developed with robust song lists and interactive features to provide a
> > better experience. Apple will continue to dominate by allowing
> individual
> > artists to participate in it's system without a record label and at an
> > affordable percentage cut.
> >
> > 2. The RIAA will grow increasingly quiet through `08. By years end the
> > entity will be almost silent. It may disband in the 48 months following.
> > This will not be a legal maneuver, but rather a PR one by the media
> giants.
> >
> > 3. Set top digital media players for video content will begin to accept
> more
> > than just DVD's/BlueRay/HD-DVD. By years end most major manufacturers
> will
> > support the playing of media files via network/wireless connections to
> home
> > PC's or connected external media such as USB thumb-drives. They may even
> > support direct connections to movie download & play services such as
> > NetFlix's. These capabilities may begin to appear in MiniVans and SUV's
> by
> > December.
> >
> > 4. By November the MPAA members will begin to feel the same pressures
> the
> > RIAA components felt. Consumers will desire more transparency in the
> format
> > of their media. The inability to move media between devices without
> > repurchase or complex licensing software structures will frustrate and
> anger
> > them. Many more will resort to P2P systems than do today. Bittorrent
> will
> > shift to a decentralized and obfuscated structure that no longer
> requires
> > the posting of .torrent files on sharing sites and is extremely
> difficult to
> > filter.
> >
> >
> > I try not to look too far down the road and predict more than I should.
> I
> > feel Ray Kurzweil is guilty of that on many occasions. I also firmly
> believe
> > in my father's axiom "Men plan, God laughs". However, my general feeling
> > right now is that 2009 will see the collapse of DRM schemata in the
> video
> > media ecosystems. It shoudl roughly repeat the loop the RIAA has.
> >
> > My best guess right now is that cable companies will see their market
> > cannibalized from within beginning in 2010, as media companies offer
> more
> > and more content on-demand through internet delivery services. The very
> > internet connection many cable companies provide alongside their content
> > offerings will begin to deliver media when and how consumers want. I
> don't
> > think 5C and CCI will be discontinued by the cable companies, instead
> they
> > will simply go away as users move to "on demand" delivery systems that
> fit
> > their lifestyle better.
> > In the end, systems like MythTV may become more like browsers with built
> in
> > media players than tuner/recording systems.
> >
> > But then again, I could be wrong. It's happened before  :)

Steven Adeff Said:

> pretty much 100% agree with you on this.
> To add to the MPAA comments... Warner's decision to drop HD-DVD mid
> contract with Toshiba shows that at least the movie studios are still
> very much interested in DRM. BluRay is notoriously DRM heavy compared
> to HD-DVD. It's the reason BluRay players need constant firmware
> updates, etc. Since this is the only real difference between the two
> formats, and BluRay is more expensive, it's the only reason a studio
> would have to choose BluRay over HD-DVD.
> Whether the success the music industry has with non-DRM'd music
> affects them by November as you predict seems a little soon, but they
> will eventually go that way, especially when broadband improvements
> make transferring HD movies as easy as what we have now allows for
> transferring music.
> It's also interesting to note the number of non-Pop music labels
> beginning to distribute lossless compressed digital music, some even
> allowing for higher fidelity versions (ie SACD/DVD-A eqiuvalent
> quality). I'm still fearful of the crashed hard drive issue and being
> able to re-download (which is one reason I have a RAID5 array, but not
> everyone has that, and its not foolproof), which is why I'm a eMusic
> subscriber for my digital music.

I'm not really sure that any DRM that is dependant on the physical media in
some way is ever going to fly. The cracked codes seem to hit the net within
24/48 hours of unveiling. The BluRay codes were published by a cracker
months ago. I'm sure Sony has compensated, but I am only giving an example.
Code cracking is really just the interim step we'll see to real media
freedom anyway.

Just as we are currently witnessing the slow death of physical media
distribution for music I think other media formats will soon follow. You can
already download 1080p H.264 encoded copies of many movies on P2P networks.
Once the network enables these formats to move as fast as music does then
DVD's will die out. Once that happens, the same factors that are crushing
the RIAA will come into play for the MPAA etc.

BTW, I would have originally agreed with you that my predictions are too
fast-paced. But if you go back and check the archives you'll see how many
times last year I had to post to say a prediction of mine came too, way
earlier than I expected. We seem to be on some sort of accelerating curve.

It seems that the talent pool and computing power available for breaking
media restriction methods doubles or triples each year. The speed of
networking required for the  distribution of these unlocked media files is
also progressing at a rate that doubles every year, sometimes more. Populist
pressure for unrestricted media distribution also grows each year -
seemingly in a direct proportionate 110-120% response to the level of media
exposure of legal enforcement (lawsuits etc) carried out by the restriction

By contrast, new encryption methods and implementation of same progresses at
a linear pace. it only get's marginally more effective each year, maybe 10%.
Populist support for restriction of formats dwindles each year as well.

So what you get is a rough effectiveness contrast of:

(Talent & talent pool doubled) + (Computational power doubled) + (Network
speed doubled) + (Restriction enforcement response) = Media Freedom Movement


(Restriction methodology development) + (Equipment manufacturer/media
distributor implementation) + (legal enforcement effectiveness) =
Restriction Proponant power.

NOTE: Bear in mind that EMI and LEE can actually have a NEGATIVE effect.


(Tx2)+(Cx2)+(Nx2)+(RER)  vs  (RMDx1.1)+(EMI)+(LEE)

Now the above "formula" is a 10,000 foot view, and there are lots of smaller
factors involved, but I think it captures the essence of the contrast. I
don't think it takes a genius to see how quickly the left hand side of that
equation accelerates in contrast to the right. I think there is a "sea
change" coming and we are just on the very beginning of what will become a
very steep curve.
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