[mythtv-users] Who's going to be the first?

Brian Wood beww at beww.org
Thu Sep 2 20:45:36 UTC 2010


On Thursday, September 02, 2010 01:58:15 pm Craig Treleaven wrote:

> What proportion of the population do you think is able to set up a NAS
> server, acquire (download, import, whatever) video to be stored there,
> configure hardware and/or software to access those files (including
> containers, formats, codecs, bit rates, ad nauseum)--and is willing to
> spend the time and $$ to do it?  I'm thinking that maybe 10-15% of the
> adult population is _capable_ of doing this.  Of those, no more than 1 in
> 3 would be WILLING.  So maybe 3 to 5% might enjoy the 'beauty of open
> systems'.  Apple is not aiming the new ATV at them.  As I said, it will be
> interesting to see how many of the remaining 95 to 98% might bite.

Perhaps a better question might be:

What proportion of the population is capable of ordering a Roku or similar device, inputting their Netflix ID and password, 
connecting it to their TV set and watching it? I'd think at least 80% are capable of that.

A related question:

What proportion of the population will be inundated with Apple advertising and never figure out there are alternatives?

People who are aware of Netflix will see the "$99", and conclude that it's the same price as the Netflix options. That price 
point is a big psychological factor. Apple's ads will stress the up front cost, not the continuing programming costs.

But my biggest fear, with the ATV or Netflix, it that it will lead to more capping of downloads by the ISPs, who are also 
trying to sell on-demand network-delivered programming, and are in a position to exclude their own offerings from the caps.

Should Net Neutrality fail, as it looks like it might, the situation will get totally out of hand.

 





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