[mythtv-users] RIAA in trouble - relevant to us

[Joe Borne]

> On Tue, Jun 26, 2007 at 09:34:31AM -0400, Joe Borne wrote:
> > I believe complete digital media freedom is on the way. All of the
> > sociological trend markers are in place and the change rate has moved
> > onto the first stage of the exponential curve.
>
> I'm inclined to agree with you; the media providers being dragged
> Kicking and Screaming along.
>
> Any thoughts on what the implications of this might be to MythTV?
>
> Particularly in light of the fact that we appear to be approaching the
> beginning of that curve WRT the end of DRM as well?
>
> Cheers,
> -- jra

Well, i did post quite extensively on that very subject a month or so ago.

Et Al..

Way back in Vol #48, Issue 75 I wrote:

>The whole fight over DRM on music just ended this last month. The fact that
>iTunes is now going to offer DRM-free versions of almost all of its music
>signals that the end of DRM is on the way. M$ followed suit within days for
>it's Zune service. Over the next year or so competition will drive prices
>down yet again, and fewer and fewer consumers will buy the DRM'd version
>until the providers see no point in carrying it any more. Sure, the DMCA
>will still exist, but it will molder in a folder somewhere because the
>content providers themselves will see no point in enforcing it. Within a
>few years the MPAA will be forced into the same position the RIAA now finds
>itself in.

Note the part where I said " fewer and fewer consumers will buy the DRM'd
version until the providers see no point in carrying it any more".

I also postulated that the music providers hate DRM more than us because it
costs them a lot in time, effort and money and does nothing but p*ss their
customers off.

Well, looks like I was accurate on the prediction, but wrong on the time
line. Instead of it happening 18 months from now - it's NOW.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/6420AP_Amazoncom_Music_Store.html

Watch - in a matter of weeks or months M$, Apple and Wal-Mart will follow
suit, maybe faster. Moore's law seems to be affecting the technology world
in ways more than anticipated.

The implications for MythTV are all good. It may well mean the end of
encrypted DVD's. Heck, it probably means the end of DVD's altogether.
The only advantage the MPAA currently has is that they control the
hardware and media. Once the content is distributed digitally they are
screwed. Just as with Music, it is impossible to really DRM it. Since
at some place in the code of the player or codec etc, the decoding key
is there. Anyone patient enough with a decompiler or hex reader can
eventually find it. Blu-Ray anyone?

As far as 5C encrypted channels are concerned. I frankly think that
once digitally delivered media becomes ubiquitous, the providers just
wont bother. It's been proven over and over that people who want to
make illegal copies are going to find a way to do it no matter how you
encrypt it. The VAST majority of users have no problem paying a fair
price for content served 'ala carte'. This theorum was proved by
iTunes.

The younger executives at the movie studios all understand this, as do
the bands, and other providers. It's simply the "old guard"
desperately grasping a a crumbling business model.

> Date: Tue, 26 Jun 2007 15:17:52 +0100
> From: David Campbell <dave at cpfc.org>
>
> Jay R. Ashworth wrote:
> > Particularly in light of the fact that we appear to be approaching the
> > beginning of that curve WRT the end of DRM as well?
>
> Are we?
>
> For music maybe but not for encrypted DVDs or much HD and digital
> broadcasts?
>
> Dave

I think my above comments cover this as well. In addition to that I
have been exploring the idea of a small box that converts the analog
HD that comes out of most STB component outputs into a firewire mpeg2
signal. It is feasable in the sub $200 range, but we have to wait a
year or so for a particular chip to become available. The flaw in any
HD encryption scheme is that at some point the signal has to be
decrypted and output to the screen. Anyone who can intercept it at
that point and redirect it can defeat the encryption without
detection.