[mythtv-users] MythTV production run

[Bill Chmura]

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The other thing to see is that there is not just Tivo anymore.  The big ones 
are starting to get in on it... so your digital cable box will have the same 
feature set soon.   Tivo is responding by dropping prices down to $149...

More below...

On Monday 03 May 2004 11:57 pm, Larry Howe wrote:
> I think the three most important things about getting more people to use
> linux (e.g. MythTV) are volume, volume, and volume. After volume, the next
> three most important things are ownership, privacy, and privacy.

To get it into the mainstream you would have to just have it boot mythtv... 
Linux would have to be transparent.  IMO anyway.  If you want to push volume 
you don't want to be selling them another computer for the house (the wives 
would never go for it) 

> Someone did mention volume and how there may not be too much advantage to
> more volume. I have a bit of a counterexample. I made some custom hardware
> a few years back and I could only break even when I made a couple at a
> time. When I did get an order for 20 or so at once, then I could turn a
> profit. This is of course a classic chicken and egg problem, more people
> don't use it because more people don't use it, etc.
>
> In terms of ownership and privacy, this is something I think needs to be
> emphasized more in all linux advocacy. Someone mentioned digeo.com on here
> and how it is "the competition" for MythTV. It is not the competition for
> MythTV. If you look at the digeo literature you'll see that it not only
> monitors your viewing, it then cleverly inserts targeted advertisements
> INTO THE NAVIGATION MENUS. So it is only the competition for people who
> don't mind that sort of thing.

Which is the majority (myself excluded).  From what I have seen people will 
tolerate a whole lot to save a buck.  To most people they don't care if their 
viewing habits are recorded and tracked.

> For me personally, maybe it's my age, but I've had one too many ads fed to
> me, and I don't want more of them popping up in new places. How many people
> would be willing to spend $20 per month for a supported MythTV that has
> more features, and isn't trying to sell them stuff? And would $20 per sub
> per month be enough to support a business of supporting mythtv boxes?

Only if SCO doesn't notice :)... Seriously the costs of providing support will 
add up fast.  Just to have one person on doing it full time (as primary 
income) making lets say $35,000 / year would require something like 34 people 
paying $20 / month each.  That does not include phones, repaying for 
hardware, investors, benefits, etc...  Not to mention credit card processing, 
collecting from deadbeats (also known as customers on a good day).

> I would be willing to put up some money (but not all the money) to support
> a short production run (20 boxes maybe?). I can also help with sales and
> marketing but someone else would
> have to do the design and offer the support. My feeling is we would have to
> hit near the $300 price point to even be able to sell 20. Any takers?

Right now, tivo is selling for $149, plus $12.95 a month.  I have some future 
in-laws with Tivos and when we go through the feature set they concur that 
Myth does have some nice features but none of them seem to be ready to 
switch.

Can a myth box be put together that cheaply?  If you are going to count on the 
$20/mo to pay back the box it could be a long wait...  If your box costs 
$500, it will take over 2 years to pay for the hardware alone.  

You also have the issue of support.  If you start selling these to people on a 
support arrangement ($20/month) and then your XML feed for channel 
information blows out you've got a problem.  What do you do when Jack 
Valencia goes down to washington and gets them to ban time-shifting programs?  
Effectively making recording illegal.  Yeah, I know it can never happen... 
big business does not control the government... 

As a small business owner I can certainly tell you its a pain in the ass.


> Larry
>
> Quoting sukeband at vzavenue.net:
> > Hey everyone,
> >
> > I know the subject of selling commercial mythtv boxes has
> > been probably talked about to death, but I’d hate to see
> > talents and skill of the major developers on this, go
> > unrewarded monetarily. I’ve been playing around with the
> > software for a few months now and, I feel like it's nothing
> > short of brilliant.
> >
> > Is anyone adverse to the idea of marketing prebuilt systems
> > and having any some of generated go to the major developers?
> > Does anyone see a fairly large market for these? If this is
> > the case, I don’t see a problem taking advantage of that, if
> > it went towards the betterment of the players in the
> > community, especially the people that made this project
> > possible?
> >
> > What are your thoughts on this guys?
> >
> >
> > -Rob
>
> ----- End forwarded message -----
>
>
>
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- -- 

Bill Chmura

w. http://www.fistfullofcode.com
w. http://www.explosivo.com

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